hot rolled coils rose significantly

On June 24th, the black futures trended, and the hot-rolled futures rose significantly. The main 1910 contract once hit a new high of 3,928 yuan/ton over the eight-month period, up 3.69%. Analysts said that Tangshan's efforts to limit production and the international trade situation are better than expected, which will benefit the hot-rolled price trend. At present, the marginal supply and demand margins in the hot coil market are relatively certain, and the short-term price is expected to remain strong.

The price of "five consecutive years"

On June 24, the hot-rolled futures rose strongly. The main contract of 1910 was up to 3,928 yuan/ton, setting a new high since October 16, 2018. It closed at 3,846 yuan/ton, down 137 yuan or 3.69%. The positions increased by 644,000 hands and 92,980 lots respectively, and the daily K line realized "five consecutive years".

He Jianhui, a senior analyst at SDIC Anxin Futures, said that the price of Tangshan has been tightened, the international trade situation is driven by good expectations, and the price of hot-rolled futures continues to rise.

“If the production limit is strictly enforced and the production limit corresponds to the decline in production, the average daily output of crude steel in Tangshan will be reduced by 160,000 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the national average daily crude steel output, iron ore. The average daily demand will be reduced by 230,000 tons.” He Jianhui said that in the short term, the limited production will significantly improve the steel supply and demand pattern, steel prices are expected to remain strong, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore are relatively under pressure, and the profit per ton of steel will be repaired. Due to the relatively large capacity of sheet steel and strip steel in Tangshan area, the heat coil is relatively more beneficial, and the price difference between the coiled snails is expected to continue to narrow.

Ruida Futures analysts said that the Tangshan area released a new production restriction policy last weekend, which is obviously stricter than the previous period, and the steel mills are gradually responding. The market bullish atmosphere is rising, and billet prices have risen sharply last weekend, pushing the spot price of finished products. No amount to rise. The spot price of hot-rolled coils has been raised sharply, and the long-term positions in the mainstream positions of futures are obvious.

Straight Flush data showed that as of June 24, the A-shares related to commodity rolling board generally rose, with Fangda Special Steel up 9.68% and Daye Special Steel up 4.57%. Xining Special Steel, Taigang Stainless, Jiuli Special materials rose more than 2%, and ST Fugang rose 1.86%.

Supply and demand margins improved

In terms of demand, He Jianhui said that from the perspective of PMI and major industry data, the current manufacturing boom is still relatively low, and demand for hot coils is under pressure. However, from the marginal point of view, the stage of rapid decline in demand has passed. With the reduction of the base and the increase of policy stimulus, the relevant industries are expected to stabilize in the future. In addition, the margins of the automobile and home appliances industries have improved recently. In the later period, with the increase in the counter-cyclical adjustment of infrastructure, construction machinery will also rebound. In addition, compared with rebar, which relies mainly on domestic demand (real estate + infrastructure), the demand for external demand for hot coil is relatively high, and the recent expectation is good, which has certain support for the price of hot coil. However, this will be a long-term and complicated process. There are still many iterations in the middle. In the latter stage, it is still necessary to be wary of the adverse effects of uncertainty on the hot coil.

For the market outlook, He Jianhui said that the marginal improvement in the supply and demand of hot coils is relatively certain, and the short-term prices will remain strong. However, considering that the current disk is basically flat, and the previous limited production effect has been declining, the cautious and optimistic attitude towards Tangshan's current production limit, and the sustainability of demand recovery remain to be seen. In the short term, we must also guard against excessive market optimism and overdraft. , causing price volatility. In operation, pay attention to the rhythm.